This Q3 2021 update considers the initial rebound of early 2021 along with its return to more normal spending levels and even some slowdowns expected in the latter half of 2021.
This update is additionally developed from the basic disruptive methodology that we’ve relied on for two decades. This method represents a “bottom-up” approach, building estimates not on what media companies receive — the typical method — but on what businesses in a specific market spend. Greater detail on that methodology can be found here.
Our new forecast weighs the impact of four key factors on any given business’s expenditures. These factors were incorporated into Borrell’s Compass engine and reflect the most likely scenario based on the most recent data through July 2022. The factors are:
BUSINESS HEALTH – 5+ years of retail sales were tracked and projected through 2025. In addition, retail reaction from the recession of 2008 was also taken into consideration. The fact that the 2008 recession is essentially different than what the U.S. is experiencing now was also considered.
MEDIA HEALTH – Current media forecasts were merged with updated outlooks from trade associations as well as forecasts on budgets culled from hundreds of media professionals throughout the country.
EMPLOYMENT HEALTH – Up-to-date monthly employment numbers were factored with daily updated COVID19-related figures to provide a view into the relative consumer well-being in each county across the U.S.
POPULATION HEALTH – The general health of a community has a direct impact on consumer behavior and ultimately marketing expenditures. The impact of COVID on county populations was also considered. As was each state’s (at the time) general policy toward health regulations, mandates, school openings etc.
We introduced predictive models that relied on these elements and were applied to the existing data within the Compass database. New forecasts were produced, cleansed for anomalies, and reran. The results are a current view of marketing expenditures in each county in the U.S.
As new information becomes available, we will update these forecasts as necessary.