Forecasts
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Market-Level Forecasts for 2023
Now Available!
Revised as of May 2022
The 2020-21 pandemic crafted a new business landscape in many markets. Some businesses that once bought advertising are permanently shuttered, while new ones have opened. How will this new environment shape the 2022 & 2023 advertising and marketing landscape for your market? We've re-forecast our data for 2022 and 2023 to reflect those changes. It's now available to Compass subscribers as part of their annual subscription to our market-level data. We are also making forecasts available to new clients for a one-time purchase.
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Have Questions?
Please send us an email: forecast@borrellassociates.com or call us: 757-221-6641
Inside each Borrell Forecast you can expect:
View our Methodology
What's in Your Report? A Forecast Workbook Preview (6 minutes)
Frequently Asked Questions
Each forecast is compiled for a market you specify. Forecasts include 17 interactive charts and tables, allowing you to display multiple views of total advertising and market expenditures for 2022, 2023, and 2024. Data spans 10 types of traditional media (radio, outdoor, TV, cable, newspaper, etc.), 7 types of digital ad expenditures (SEM, streaming video/OTT, targeted banners, etc.), 25 types of marketing expenditures (sponsorships, coupons, events, games, etc.), and 100 types of business (auto dealers, furniture stores, HVAC, restaurants, amusement parks, etc.). EXAMPLE: The forecast estimates what HVAC dealers spent on OTT in your market in 2022, how that will change in 2023, and what is forecast for 2024.
In most cases, within 48 hours. Forecasts are compiled individually based on the geographic definition you furnish. If you order multiple markets, your forecasts will be compiled simultaneously and delivered within the same time period.
Our data spans all 3,141 counties and county-equivalents (parishes and independent cities) in the United States, excluding Puerto Rico. You define your market. We cannot conduct assessments based on Zip Codes or partial counties.
Click THIS LINK to download a sample forecast. You will be asked to enter your information.
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Have Questions?
Please send us an email: forecast@borrellassociates.com or call us: 757-221-6641
How We Compile Forecasts
METHODOLOGY
This update considers the claw back to a new normal in the local business landscape. The pandemic had an effect on both consumer behaviors and business practices which, combined, had an ongoing effect on local advertising.
This update is additionally developed from the basic disruptive methodology that we've relied on for two decades. This method represents a “bottom-up” approach, building estimates not on what media companies receive — the typical method — but on what businesses in a specific market spend. Greater detail on that methodology can be found here.
Our new forecast weighs the impact of four key factors on any given business's expenditures. These factors were incorporated into Borrell's Compass engine and reflect the most likely scenario based on the most recent data through October 2022. The factors are:
- BUSINESS HEALTH - 5+ years of retail sales were tracked and projected through 2025. In addition, retail reaction from the recession of 2008 was also taken into consideration. The fact that the 2008 recession is essentially different than what the U.S. is experiencing now was also considered.
- MEDIA HEALTH - Current media forecasts were merged with updated outlooks from trade associations as well as forecasts on budgets culled from hundreds of media professionals throughout the country.
- EMPLOYMENT HEALTH - Up-to-date monthly employment numbers were factored with daily updated COVID19-related figures to provide a view into the relative consumer well-being in each county across the U.S.
- POPULATION HEALTH - The general health of a community has a direct impact on consumer behavior and ultimately marketing expenditures. The impact of COVID on county populations was also considered. As was each state's (at the time) general policy toward health regulations, mandates, school openings etc.
We introduced predictive models that relied on these elements and were applied to the existing data within the Compass database. New forecasts were produced, cleansed for anomalies, and reran. The results are a current view of marketing expenditures in each county in the U.S.
As new information becomes available, we will update these forecasts as necessary.
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