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Forecasts

Market-Level Forecasts for 2024 Now Available!


Revised as of September 2023

The lingering effects of the 2020/21 pandemic continue to change the business landscape well into 2023. Though the pace of new-business creation is slowing, some markets are experiencing 20% growth this year alone. How will this new environment shape the advertising and marketing landscape for your market in 2024? We've re-forecast our data to reflect those changes. The updates are available to Compass subscribers as part of their annual subscription to our market-level data. If you’re not a subscriber, you can purchase an interactive workbook with forecasts for your market.

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Have Questions?

Please send us an email: forecast@borrellassociates.com or call us: 757-221-6641

Each Forecast contains:


17 Interactive Charts & Tables
7 types of digital ad expenditures. (SEM, streaming video/OTT, targeted banners, etc.)
Choose between 100 different business types from auto dealers to furniture stores, HVAC, to restaurants & amusement parks.
Data spanning 10 types of traditional media. (radio, outdoor, TV, Cable, newspaper, etc.)
25 types of marketing expenditures. (sponsorships, coupons, events, games, etc.)
A three year comparison of all of this data including the current default years of 2023, 2024, 2025.

How Do We Compile Forecasts?

Frequently Asked Questions

Each forecast is compiled for a market you specify. Forecasts include 17 interactive charts and tables, allowing you to display multiple views of total advertising and market expenditures for 2023, 2024, and 2025. Data spans 10 types of traditional media (radio, outdoor, TV, cable, newspaper, etc.), 7 types of digital ad expenditures (SEM, streaming video/OTT, targeted banners, etc.), 25 types of marketing expenditures (sponsorships, coupons, events, games, etc.), and 100 types of business (auto dealers, furniture stores, HVAC, restaurants, amusement parks, etc.). EXAMPLE: The forecast estimates what HVAC dealers spent on OTT in your market in 2023, how that will change in 2024, and what is forecast for 2025.

In most cases, within 48 hours. Forecasts are compiled individually based on the geographic definition you furnish. If you order multiple markets, your forecasts will be compiled simultaneously and delivered within the same time period.

Our data spans all 3,141 counties and county-equivalents (parishes and independent cities) in the United States, excluding Puerto Rico. You define your market. We cannot conduct assessments based on Zip Codes or partial counties.

Click THIS LINK to download a sample forecast. You will be asked to enter your information.

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    Have Questions?

    Please send us an email: forecast@borrellassociates.com or call us: 757-221-6641

    How We Compile Forecasts

    METHODOLOGY

    Our Fall 2023 update encompasses continuing growth in the numbers and types of businesses created since the 2020/2021 pandemic, U.S. economic conditions, and forecasts compiled by federal agencies, banks, and financial analysts. It also considers an ongoing stream of information furnished by Borrell's ongoing surveys of SMBs, including monthly panel surveys and two massive polls in each spring and fall that represent the largest and most comprehensive survey of local ad buyers in the nation.

    This update is developed from the basic disruptive method we've employed more than two decades. It represents a “bottom-up” approach, building estimates not on what media companies receive — the typical method — but on what businesses in a specific market spend. We believe this is a more holistic and accurate approach to understand true market potential. Greater detail on that methodology can be found here.

    Our new forecast weighs the impact of four key factors on any given business's expenditures. These factors were incorporated into Borrell's Compass engine and reflect the most likely scenario based on the most recent data through September 2023. The factors are:

    • BUSINESS HEALTH - 5+ years of retail sales were tracked and projected through 2025.
    • MEDIA HEALTH - Current media forecasts were merged with updated outlooks from trade associations as well as forecasts on budgets culled from hundreds of media professionals throughout the country.
    • EMPLOYMENT HEALTH - Up-to-date monthly employment numbers were factored with daily updated COVID19-related figures to provide a view into the relative consumer well-being in each county across the U.S.
    • POPULATION HEALTH - The general health of a community has a direct impact on consumer behavior and ultimately marketing expenditures.

    We introduced predictive models that relied on these elements and were applied to the existing data within the Compass database. New forecasts were produced, cleansed for anomalies, and reran. The results are a current view of marketing expenditures in each county in the U.S.

    As new information becomes available, we will update these forecasts as necessary.