Forecasts
Tomorrow's Media Understood Today.
Want to know what's going on inside your market? Purchasing a Borrell Forecast could be the perfect solution to your problem. Our forecasts come packed with information custom tailored to your market down to a county level!
Market-Level Forecasts for 2022 Now Available!
Revised as of October 2021
The 2020-21 pandemic has crafted a new business landscape in many markets. Some businesses that once bought advertising are permanently shuttered, while new ones have opened. How will this new environment shape the 2022 advertising and marketing landscape for your market? We've re-forecast our data for 2021 and 2022 to reflect those changes. It's now available to Compass subscribers as part of their annual subscription to our market-level data. We are also making forecasts available to new clients for a one-time purchase.
Have Questions?
Please send us an email: forecast@borrellassociates.com or call us: 757-221-6641
Inside each Borrell Forecast you can expect:
- 17 Interactive Charts & Tables.
- Data spanning 10 types of traditional media. (radio, outdoor, TV, Cable, newspaper, etc.)
- 7 types of digital ad expenditures including SEM, streaming video/OTT, & targeted banners.
- 25 types of marketing expenditures including sponsorships, coupons, events, games, etc.
- Choose between 100 different business types from auto dealers to furniture stores, HVAC, to restaurants & amusement parks.
For example, a Borrell Forecast can estimate what HVAC dealers spent on OTT in your market in 2020, and how that spending is projected to change in 2021 - 2022.
What’s Shaping the Changes in 2022? (3 minutes)
What’s In Your Local Report? (45 seconds)
Frequently Asked Questions:
What does the forecast include?
Each forecast is compiled for a market you specify. Forecasts include 17 interactive charts and tables, allowing you to display multiple views of total advertising and market expenditures for 2020, 2021, and 2022. Data spans 10 types of traditional media (radio, outdoor, TV, cable, newspaper, etc.), 7 types of digital ad expenditures (SEM, streaming video/OTT, targeted banners, etc.), 25 types of marketing expenditures (sponsorships, coupons, events, games, etc.), and 100 types of business (auto dealers, furniture stores, HVAC, restaurants, amusement parks, etc.). EXAMPLE: The forecast estimates what HVAC dealers spent on OTT in your market in 2020, how that changed in 2021, and what is forecasted for 2022.
When will I receive it?
In most cases, within 48 hours. Forecasts are compiled individually based on the geographic definition you furnish. If you order multiple markets, your forecasts will be compiled simultaneously and delivered within the same time period.
Which markets are covered?
Our data spans all 3,141 counties and county-equivalents (parishes and independent cities) in the United States, excluding Puerto Rico. You define your market. We cannot conduct assessments based on Zip Codes or partial counties.
How do I get a sample?
Click THIS LINK to download a sample forecast. You will be asked to enter your information.
How We Compile Forecasts
METHODOLOGY
This Q3 2021 update considers the initial rebound of early 2021 along with its return to more normal spending levels and even some slowdowns expected in the latter half of 2021.
This update is additionally developed from the basic disruptive methodology that we've relied on for two decades. This method represents a “bottom-up” approach, building estimates not on what media companies receive — the typical method — but on what businesses in a specific market spend. Greater detail on that methodology can be found here.
Our new forecast weighs the impact of four key factors on any given business's expenditures. These factors were incorporated into Borrell's Compass engine and reflect the most likely scenario based on the most recent data through July 2022. The factors are:
- BUSINESS HEALTH - 5+ years of retail sales were tracked and projected through 2025. In addition, retail reaction from the recession of 2008 was also taken into consideration. The fact that the 2008 recession is essentially different than what the U.S. is experiencing now was also considered.
- MEDIA HEALTH - Current media forecasts were merged with updated outlooks from trade associations as well as forecasts on budgets culled from hundreds of media professionals throughout the country.
- EMPLOYMENT HEALTH - Up-to-date monthly employment numbers were factored with daily updated COVID19-related figures to provide a view into the relative consumer well-being in each county across the U.S.
- POPULATION HEALTH - The general health of a community has a direct impact on consumer behavior and ultimately marketing expenditures. The impact of COVID on county populations was also considered. As was each state's (at the time) general policy toward health regulations, mandates, school openings etc.
We introduced predictive models that relied on these elements and were applied to the existing data within the Compass database. New forecasts were produced, cleansed for anomalies, and reran. The results are a current view of marketing expenditures in each county in the U.S.
As new information becomes available, we will update these forecasts as necessary.
Have Questions?
Please send us an email: forecast@borrellassociates.com or call us: 757-221-6641
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